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7 Target Compliance and Benchmark //

This section demonstrates the alignment with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective. Additionally, this section includes benchmark of the TYNDP scenarios with the Commission’s Impact Assessment study which was published on 6 February 2024, towards end of TYNDP Scenarios cycle. As required by the regulation, the latest available Commission Scenarios taken into account during the development of the scenario building process and for this cycle these are Fit for 55 & REPowerEU scenarios. Therefore, this section includes benchmarking with these scenarios as well the Commission’s Impact Assessment study.

7.1 Energy efficiency first principle and Renewable Energy Directive Objectives

On 10 March 2023, the European Parliament and the Council reached a provisional agreement on the EU Energy Efficiency Directive (‘EED’). Accordingly, the EU energy efficiency target agreed for 11.7 % reduction for 2030 comparing to the 2022 reference scenarios1. This target is above the Commission’s original Fit for 55 proposal (9 %) but marks lower than REPowerEU proposal (13 %)2.

This energy efficiency target corresponds a binding target for final energy consumption in 2030, which is 763 Mtoe (8,873 TWh) and an indicative primary energy consumption target, which is 992 Mtoe3.

ENTSOs collected the annual final energy consumption figures from the electricity and gas TSOs to provide overall energy system view and to be able to calculate the compliance with this EED target.

These are called NT energy mix surveys, represents the electricity and gas TSOs best estimate of their upcoming NECPs and national views as the data collection process took place before the submission of draft NECPs to the Commission. There will be a new data collection in Q4 2024, for the purpose of 2026 Scenarios; where the data collection will be closer to the NECPs, if they will be published before the end of the year as planned.

The NT energy mix surveys4 shows up to 8 % (818 TWh) gap to reach the Union’s latest energy efficiency target5. The adjustment has been done according to the consulted ‘Gap Closing Methodology’6 and the table below illustrates the EU27 level energy carrier breakdown of the original National Trends Scenario (‘TYNDP NT’) and after adjustment according to the gap closing methodology (‘TYNDP NT+’).

1 See here
2 See here
3 See here
4 See here
5 Comparing to the EC scenarios, the NT scenarios include part of the energy branch (e.g., refineries) as some are included under industry sector therefore overestimating the reported overall final energy consumption.
6 See here

Energy Carriers201520162030
Synthetic fuels00393984341
District Heating52553437337347400

Table 1: Final Energy Consumption*, EU27 (TWh)
* Final energy consumption including international aviation and excludes ambient heat, non-energy use, energy branch and international shipping1.
Except TYNDP includes part of energy branch as some are reported under industry.
** Adjusted according to the consulted ‘gap filling methodology’. Solid is only coal, liquids represent only oil and renewables includes; biofuels, biogas, geothermal, excess heat, biomethane, waste and other renewables
*** Includes H₂ for ammonia production in TYNDP scenarios

While the public consultation on the gap closing methodology finds the methodology appropriate, it required to adjust the 2040 figures where it is necessary. Therefore, the gap closing methodology is extended to the National Trends 2040 scenarios by taking the minimum figure of oil or coal between 2030 adjusted figure and 2040 submitted figure. This represents 0.5 % of the 2040 final energy consumption, translates in reduction of 45 TWh oil and 1 TWh coal according to the methodology.

As TYNDP scenarios are required for infrastructure assessment, the study does not go beyond the calculation of the gap & adjusting it with rather a pragmatic approach for the target calculation.

This approach does not provide any detailed analysis neither the MS nor the sub-sectorial level as it is not a purpose of the scenarios. It should be noted that as the gap closing methodology does not require adaptation on the electricity and gas figures, the modeling simulation results are not affected with this adaptation.

Figure 41 provides an overview on the evolution of the Final Energy Consumption over 2050. It should be noted that for the TYNDP DE & GA scenarios, synfuels and biomethane are distributed under methane and liquid demands, solid includes biomass whereas renewables only represent biofuels.

Figure 41: Final Energy Consumption Benchmark, EU27 (TWh)
* FEC for the EC studies excludes energy branch, international shipping, ambient heat, non-energy use and includes international aviation.

TYNDP analysis follows the same approach, additionally part of energy branch is included (as some are reported under industry)

TYNDP NT+ figures are adjusted according to the consulted ‘gap filling methodology’. Solid is only coal, liquids represent only oil and renewables includes; biofuels, biogas, geothermal, excess heat, biomethane, waste and other renewables.

Hydrogen includes ammonia production for TYNDP scenarios.

DE & GA scenarios synfuels and biomethane are distributed under methane and liquid demands, Solid includes coal and renewables only includes some biofuels and biomass.

7.1.1 RES Share

The overall target for the share of renewable energy was agreed at 42.5 % by 2030, with an indicative top-up of 2.5 %.

According to the modeling results of electricity and gas supply mix together with the remaining careers from the NT+ energy mix surveys, the overall RES share is 41.7 % in 2030 prior to the gap closing methodology. The RES-share after the gap closing methodology reaches 45.4 % in 2030.

Overall, the scenarios illustrate high increase of deployment of wind and solar which increases the RES-E and RES-H share which has great influence on the overall RES Share calculation.

2030 – NT+2030 – NT
Overall RES share (GFCoE adjusted) [%]45.4 %41.7 %
Energy from renewable resources (including RFNBOs, excluding electricity, H2 and biofuels) – GWh1,522,5441,522,544
Ambient Heat – GWh87,704 87,704
Renewable electricity, exc. RE electricity used for the energy branch except heat production – GWh*2,353,0702,353,070
Renewable H2, exc. RE H2 used for energy branch, non-energy use and international shipping – GWh172,090172,090
Gross Final Consumption of Energy (GFCoE) – GWh9,165,4339,165,433
Final Energy Consumption (FEC) – GWh8,872,8419,987,841
Ambient Heat – GWh87,704 87,704
Distribution losses for electricity – GWh151,671151,671
The consumption of electricity and heat by the energy branch for electricity and heat production – GWh*53,13053,130
Transmission and distribution losses for derived heat – GWh**8888
GFCoE adjusted*** (Aviation Cap) – GWh9,107,555 9,924,364

Table 2: RES Share Target Calculation
* The consumption of electricity and heat by the energy branch for electricity and heat production is assumed 48 % of electricity and heat comsumption by the energy branch. (The share calculated acc to EC FF55)
** The transmission and distribution losses for derived heat is taken 0.57 % of FEC (The share calculated acc to EC FF55)
*** GFCoE adjusted/GFCoE share is taken from EC FF55 scenario

7.1.2 GHG reduction objectives

All scenarios comply with the European climate and energy objectives, in particular the greenhouse gas reduction targets. On 11 December 2019 the European Commission has announced the European Green Deal and since then published several policy strategies, among others the Energy System Integration strategy (ESI) and EU Hydrogen strategy for the European Union. On 17 September 2020 the European Commission reconfirmed its proposal of reducing GHG emission by at least – 55 % by 2030 and reach climate neutrality by 2050.

This was accompanied by a supporting Impact Assessment. Since then, a climate target on 90 % reduction has been recommended by the EU Commission and is based on the newest Impact Assessment.

TYNDP scenarios meet the 2030 targets and reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Figure 42: GHG emissions outlook, EU27 (Mt)

All scenarios built on NT+ scenarios which foresee a reduction of GHG emissions of at least 55 % by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. NT+ reaches a reduction of 88 % in 2040 which slightly above the target at 90 %. Both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios reach carbon neutrality by 20502 (DE has still 61 Mt emissions in 2050).

The EU needs to become carbon negative in 2050.

The development of large-scale decarbonisation technologies can contribute to accelerate the decarbonisation of the European economy and reaching carbon negativity after 2045–2050 to be on the trajectory to meet the EU climate objectives. Reaching carbon negativity in the second half of the century is necessary to recover from the overshoot of the carbon budget defined to comply with the COP 21 objective of limiting the amount of GHG by the end of the century to limit the global temperature increase to +1.5°C.

2 Carbon neutrality (or net zero) means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration, for example through land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).

7.2 GHG emissions

A carbon tracker to compare the scenarios with the EUs climate objectives.

In the scenarios the EU emission reduction targets3 for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are analysed and the climate budget set up from 2030 to 2050 in line with the EC impact assessment report4.

Energy efficiency first: reducing the energy demand is the most efficient way to reduce GHG emissions.

All scenarios consider the development of energy efficiency measures like renovation of buildings and transition to more efficient technologies. A significant decrease in primary energy demand combined with increasing shares of renewables and decarbonised energy in the EU supply mix is a necessary condition of meeting the EU climate and energy objectives.

Renewable and decarbonisation capacities need significant increase.

Whereas electricity generation has already undergone some level of transition, the EU needs a significant increase in renewable and decarbonised capacities including for hydrogen and methane to decarbonise the whole energy system. Just for wind and solar generation, this represents an increase from 400 TWh produced in 2019 to 2,500 or 3,000 TWh in 2050 in Global Ambition and Distributed Energy respectively.

3 EU Climate targets: See here
4 Impact assesment from European Commission: See here

7.2.1 Role of non-energy sectors

All sectors need to decarbonise

The fully integrated scenarios confirm that reaching a net zero economy by 2050 requires the contribution of non-energy related sectors, such as the decarbonisation of agriculture land and production, and requires further afforestation. It should be noted, that for non-CO₂ emissions (methane, N₂O, F-gases) and LULUCF for the ongoing development until 2050, the TYNDP 2024 scenarios rely on data provided in the Impact Assessment from the European Commission5. The starting point in 2021 is taking from European Environment Agency6. For missing years with in between interpolation is used.

Associated assumptions are the same for both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition. Non-CO₂ emissions reduce in both scenarios from 662 Mt in 2022 to 304 Mt in 2050. This is also illustrated in Figure 43. Methane emissions cover the largest part of the non-CO₂ emissions. This is mostly enteric fermentation from cattle and anaerobic waste. It also covers methane leakage from gas production, processing and transportation, but this only accounts for a small share (~5 %)7.

5 Impact assessment from European Commission: See here
6 European Environment Agency: See here
7 See here

Figure 43: Non-CO₂ emission, EU27 (Mt)

Negative emissions from LULUCF increase from 201 Mt in 2022 to 333 Mt in 2050, as shown in Figure 44. The sources for the net emissions from LULUCF are for the period from 2022 to 2030 based on the expected net emission from LULUCF given by European Environment Agency8.

For the years 2040 and 2050 is used the prediction from the EUs Impact Assessment using the prediction in the S3 scenario. For the years between 2030 and 2040, and 2040 and 2050 an interpolation is used.

8 European Environment Agency (Quoted 4 April 2024): See here

Figure 44: Net negative emissions from LULUCF, EU27 (Mt)

The TYNDP 2020 and TYNDP 2022 scenario building exercises have already shown that to decarbonise all sectors as well as all fuel types, additional measures such as CCU/S are needed, also in combination with bioenergy. The TYNDP 2024 scenario assumptions for CCS are summarised in Figure 45. A quantification of available biogenic CO₂ is made in the process as well. However, this amount is only used to set a maximum value for production of electro fuels in the modelling and are not directly linked to the used values for CCU/S presented below.

The Global Ambition scenario shows an increased application of CCS, with up to 400 Mt per year by 2050 which is in line with the Industrial Carbon Management Strategy for the EU9.

These CCS assumptions are based on the projects listed on the homepage of IOGP for the coming 8 years. For the rest of the period (2033 to 2050) estimates found in the Impact Assessment from the European Commission (Scenario S3) is used. The CCS use is however capped at 400 Mt because in 2046, not to exceed the fossil emissions. Some CCS will be used in the remaining years as DAC not connected to industry emissions. In between is used interpolation. The NT+ scenario follows the same path for CCS as the Global Ambition scenario.

The Distributed Energy scenario is differentiated from Global Ambition by limiting the use of CCS. Therefore, Distributed Energy foresees a limited use of CCS (up to 150 Mt in 2050).

Figure 45: Carbon capture and storage assumptions, EU27 (Mt)

7.2.2 Carbon budget assessment

The carbon budget calculation starts in 2030. Before 2030 it is assumed that both deviation scenarios are following the path of the NT+ scenario and complies with the EU climate target and reaches a 55 % reduction in 2030.

In the period after 2030 and until 2050, the TYNDP 2024 scenarios are compared to the carbon budget suggested by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC). The ESABCC find a feasible carbon budget for the EU for 2030 to 2050 to be in the range of 13–16 GtCO₂eq but recommends a range of 11–14 GtCO₂eq which is also presented in the EC’s latest Impact Assessment.

A carbon budget secures that the EU contributes with a fair share of reductions to solve the crisis. This indicative 2030–2050 GHG budget should be fully compatible with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goals of well below 2°C. However, the EU only contributes around 7 % to global emissions which means that contributions from the rest of the world in regard to carbon reductions is crucial to solve the crisis.

In calculating the carbon budget for the scenarios, intra-EU maritime transport and intra-EU aviation are included, aligning with ESABCC calculations. Additionally, international extra-EU maritime transport is included 100 % in the scenarios, though only 50 % of the related emissions are included in the EU climate budget. The reason for this approach is chosen, as carbon emissions from international extra-EU maritime cannot be subtracted due to high use of e-liquids not specified for any sectors. However, this may add some CO₂ emissions to the scenarios not accounted for in the budget given by the ESABCC.

Technologies to achieve negative emissions are essential to meet the COP 21 objectives.

In Global Ambition the net cumulative emissions peaks around 2046 with around 14 Gt CO₂eq of net cumulative emissions. Renewable energy combined with CCS and LULUCF contributes to bending the curve and will lower the carbon budget to around 12.5 GT CO₂eq in 2050. Thus, the carbon budget for Global Ambition will end up in the lower range recommended by ESABCC. The carbon budget for GA is presented in Figure 46.

Figure 46: Cumulative emissions in the Global Ambition scenario

Distributed Energy shows higher cumulative emissions than GA and the net cumulative emission continue to rise until 2049. However, in 2050 it reaches net negative emissions.

In 2050 the cumulative emissions are 15.917 Mt CO2eq and thereby stays within the recommended budget. The carbon budget for DE is presented in Figure 47.

Figure 47: Cumulative emissions in the Distributed Energy scenario

7.2.3 Carbon footprint of energy

Electricity generation

Aiming at an earlier decarbonisation, emissions of the electricity sectors already strongly decrease to reach 166 MtCO₂ in 2030 which is a decrease of 89 % compared respectively to 1990. In 2040 emissions of the deviation scenarios represent up to 15 MtCO₂ for the scenarios.

The decarbonisation of flexible thermal power generation necessary to the reliability of the system is ensured by a switch from natural gas, coal and oil to biomethane, synthetic methane, and renewable and low-carbon hydrogen.

Such an approach is more economic than capital intensive investments in CCU/S for power generation due to the decreasing number of running hours. The emissions of electricity generation consider more conservative assumption10 on the gas blend than the results indicate (see section 6.4.5). The difference on this assumption is normal, as the modelling took place before the final gas blend is calculated.

10 The assumptions on the gas blend are as following: In 2030, 90 % is natural gas. In 2040 76 %, 61 % and 67 % natural gas for National Trends, Distributed Energy and Global Ambition. In 2050, 5 % in Distributed Energy and 21 % in Global Ambition.

Figure 48: Emission of electricity generation for EU27

It must be noticed that such decrease occurs in parallel to a fast-growing power generation supporting both direct electrification and electrolysis-based fuels. As an illustration carbon intensity is significantly reduced between 2030 and 2040 moving from 46 to 3 tCO₂/MWh for Distributed Energy, the most electrified scenario.

In 2050, carbon intensity of electricity is negligible with less than 0,5 gCO₂/kWh for both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition.

Figure 49: Carbon intensity of power generation for EU27

Hydrogen Generation

Electrolysers are supplied both by dedicated RES and the electricity market. When the first source ensures a carbon free production of synthetic fuels, electrolysis from the market may still be based on carbon emitting sources. As the electricity and hydrogen system is price-driven, the model avoids running electrolyser if it triggers fossil power generation.

Nevertheless, some must-run constraints up to 2030, minimum operation of CHP, hydrogen supply and demand requirement may result in electrolyser operating on few hours with a low carbon content. Such a situation may be considered as being favourable to the reach of carbon neutrality if the alternative would be more carbon intensive.

Figure 50: Emission of the hydrogen generation, EU27

7.3 Benchmark

7.3.1 Final energy demand

The following graph compares the Final Energy demand by fuel for the different scenarios.

Figure 51: Benchmark Final Energy demand by fuel, EU27 (TWh)
– Final energy demand excludes non energy use, energy branch11 and international shipping. Others include geothermal, industrial excess heat, power to gas excess heat and solar. Liquids includes only oil for 2015, 2019 and S3. Solids include coal for 2015, 2019 and S3, for DE, GA and NT+ solids include biomass as well.
– Ambient heat from district heating heat pumps is excluded for National Trends +
– Source for 2015 and 2019 is Impact Assessment study

11 Comparing with EC studies, for TYNDP part of energy branch is included in the industry sector.

7.3.2 Direct electricity demand

The following graph compares the electricity demand by sector for the different scenarios.

Figure 52: Final Electricity demand benchmark per sector, EU27 (TWh)
* Residential includes Residential and Tertiary sectors for TYNDP
** Others for TYNDP includes agriculture and energy branch

7.3.3 Total methane demand

The following graph compares the methane demand by sector for the different scenarios.

Figure 53: Benchmark Methane demand by sector, EU27 (TWh)
Industry sector excludes non-energy use (reported as a separate category). For DE and GA, the industry sector includes refineries. For NT+, DE and GA Residential includes Residential and Tertiary sectors. Transport sector includes international aviation and excludes international shipping. For NT+, DE and GA the “Transformation input” includes electricity generation, heat production and SMR. For DE and GA, the “Other” category includes the construction sector, the army, the hydrological sector.

7.3.4 Total hydrogen demand

The following graph compares the hydrogen demand by sector for the different scenarios.

Figure 54: Benchmark Hydrogen demand by sector, EU27 (TWh)
Industry sector excludes non-energy use (reported as a separate category). For DE and GA, the industry sector includes refineries. Transport excludes international aviation and international shipping (reported as separate categories). For DE and GA, the “Other” category includes the construction sector, the army, the hydrological sector.

Electricity generation

In 2050, the deviation scenarios consider a strong increase of both final electricity demand and electrolysis. By that time horizon, there will be hardly any fossil-based power generation to supply that demand.

It means a redesign of the power generation mix with scenario dependent options being among wind and solar technologies or nuclear.

Figure 55: Benchmark of net installed capacity , EU27
For TYNDP scenarios, installed capacities of hydrogen and methane are assigned to Renewables respectively Fossil fuels by the share of renewable respectively non-renewable fuel usage.

Figure 56: Benchmark of electricity generation, EU27 (TWh)
* Low carbon includes nuclear and decarbonised H₂

7.3.5 Methane supply

Going to a 100 % decarbonisation of the methane supply in 2050

Both Distributed Energy and Global Ambition shows a reduction in the overall methane supply from 2040 to 2050. Both scenarios are substantially higher in supply of methane in 2040 and 2050 than the EC Impact Assessment. The data from the Impact Assessment is considered biomethane, biogas and natural gas common as gaseous fuels. Therefore, it is not possible to benchmark on the specific gas types.

In Distributed Energy and Global Ambition, natural gas is completely phased out by 2050. In both scenarios the majority of the methane supply is biomethane produced in the EU. The rest is supplied by synthetic methane also mainly produced in the EU.

Figure 57: Methane supply benchmark, EU27 (TWh)

7.3.6 Hydrogen supply

Hydrogen supply transformation: from carbon emitting feedstock to fully decarbonised energy carrier.

All three scenarios consider hydrogen supply levels higher comparable to the EC Impact Assessment.

By 2050, both TYNDP 2024 scenarios consider exclusively renewable or decarbonised hydrogen supply. Methane conversion into low carbon hydrogen through SMR/ATR combined with CCS has a minor role in Global Ambition and has fully disappeared in Distributed Energy. It leaves the possibility to use decarbonisation technologies with renewable methane to produce carbon negative hydrogen.

Figure 58: Hydrogen supply benchmark, EU27 (TWh)

7.3.7 Biomass supply

As discussed in chapter 6.4.2, the TYNDP 2024 scenarios foresee the use of biomass for several applications, e.g., in power generation or in biomethane production. In order to ensure that the scenarios do not overestimate the biomass potential available to these applications, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E benchmark the biomass supply against other studies.

Figure 59 provides a comparison of the TYNDP 2024 biomass supply assumptions against the EC Impact Assessment S3 scenario. The NT+ scenario shows a growing trend and the level in 2040 corresponds to the level in the EU IA in 2040. Both TYNPD 2024 deviation scenarios are below the level observed in the EC Impact Assessment scenarios S3 which have around 2.500 TWh in 2040 and around 2.200 TWh in 2050. DE has the lowest level around 1.500 TWh for both years and GA has around 2.000 TWh for both years.

Figure 59: Biomass supply benchmark for EU27

7.3.8 Energy imports

Figure 60 compares the TYNDP 2024 assumptions on energy imports in 2040 and 2050 with draft scenario S3 in the EC Impact Assessment. The Values for NT+ is shown as well for 2030 and 2040.

Figure 60: Energy imports benchmark (excluding nuclear fuels) for EU27

As Distributed Energy focuses on higher European energy autonomy, this scenario foresees the lowest levels of energy import. By 2050 the total energy imports are reduced to around 1,200 TWh. This is well below the energy imports in the EC Impact Assessment scenarios S3 were 1,761 TWh is imported. Total energy import in Global Ambition is around 2,000 TWh and thereby foresees the highest imports of the three. Besides differences in the total energy imports, the type of imported energy carriers differs significantly.

Compared to the EC scenarios, Global Ambition and Distributed Energy foresees less import of oil, almost no import of gas, but a substantially higher imports of hydrogen. Where in the EC impact scenarios almost no hydrogen is imported (15 TWh in 2040 and 41 TWh in 2050) hydrogen imports are a significantly and important energy source in the two deviation scenarios. DE has around 600 TWh imports in 2040 and 546 in 2050, whereas GA foresees around 1,000 TWh in 2040 and 1,372 TWh in 2050.