Article 12(3) of Regulation 2022/869 (TEN-E Regulation) of 30 May 2022 specifies that ENTSO-E and ENTSOG shall invite the organisations representing all relevant stakeholders […] to participate in the scenarios development process, in particular on key elements such as assumptions and how they are reflected in the scenarios data. ACER’s Framework Guidelines on the joint TYNDP scenarios states that ENTSO-E and ENTSOG should create a stakeholder reference group. It adds that a call for interest should target stakeholders listed in Article 12(3) of the TEN-E Regulation and other relevant organisations and independent experts.

To initiate the creation of the independent Scenarios ETAG, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG proposed draft Terms of Reference (ToRs) and launched a call for interest from 5 May to 5 June 2023, with a second shorter call for categories with no or few applicants, from 12 to 19 June. 30 applications were received. After assessing the relevance of applications with the requirements specified in ACER’s Framework guidelines and in the proposed ToRs, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E established a list of 22 members which was shared with ACER and the European Commission for a two-week review period.

For information on the scope and tasks of the Scenarios ETAG, please see the Draft Terms of Reference for the Scenarios ETAG.

A complete list of participants in the Scenarios ETAG is available here. This list also includes observer members and unsuccessful applications including an explanation for the decision not to include them.

Scenarios are a prerequisite for any study analysing the future of the European energy system. Regulation (EU) 2022/869 (‘Regulation’) requires that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E jointly develop scenarios for the future European energy system in the context of their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs). According to the Regulation, these “scenarios are fully in line with the energy efficiency first principle and with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective and shall take into account the latest available Commission scenarios, as well as, when relevant, the national energy and climate plans (‘NECPs’)”.

Where possible, they are derived from official EU and Member-State data sources and are intended to provide a quantitative basis for infrastructure investment planning. The scenarios are intended to project the long-term energy demand and supply for the drafting of ENTSO-E’s and ENTSOG’s Ten-Year Network Development Plans within the context of the ongoing energy transition. They are designed in such a way that they specifically explore those uncertainties which are relevant for gas and electricity infrastructure development. As such, they primarily focus on aspects which determine the infrastructure utilisation. Furthermore, the scenarios draw extensively on the current European political and economic consensus and attempt to follow a logical trajectory to achieve future energy and climate targets.