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TYNDP 2024 scenario cycle will include six scenarios. Depending on how there are developed, these scenarios are labelled either National Trends+ (‘NT+’) scenarios or Deviation Scenarios (Distributed Energy ‘DE’ and Global Ambition ‘GA’).
TYNDP Scenario horizon and framework
Main features of the scenarios:
NT+ Scenario:
- The NT+ scenario developed based on the TSOs data in accordance with the anticipated NECPs (as TSOs best estimate), whose draft versions are to be published in summer 2023.
- These scenarios will be created for the 2030 and 2040 time horizons, because datasets for the 2050 time horizons are not available in all countries.
- This scenario should be compliant with the latest EU targets and include the non-binding agreements between EU Member States, and this requires the inclusion of all energy carriers.
- If there is a gap between the EU targets and this scenario, this gap will be transparently presented and closed according to the ‘gap filling methodology’ under public consultation in July 2023.
The Deviation Scenarios (DE and GA):
- These scenarios are deviations from the NT+ 2030 scenario according to their respective storylines. Therefore, they require a Storyline Update Process.
- These scenarios will be created for the 2040 and 2050 time horizons (2030 NT+ is the starting point). In addition, the 2035-time horizon will be reported as a snapshot.
- These scenarios will be compliant with EU targets. For 2035 and 2040, a meaningful transition from 2030 EU targets is sought, while for 2050 reaching carbon neutrality is mandatory.
Timeline overview & Stakeholder engagement plan
View the TYNDP 2024 timeline
The stakeholder engagement plan foresees several engagement periods for stakeholders to contribute to the development of the scenarios. In parallel, a new stakeholders group, the Scenarios Stakeholder Reference Group, is being set up and is expected to start its activities in the second half of 2023 to contribute to the 2024 and 2026 scenario cycles.
Scenario building process
About TYNDP scenarios
Scenarios are a prerequisite for any study analysing the future of the European energy system. Regulation (EU) 2022/869 (‘Regulation’) requires that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E jointly develop scenarios for the future European energy system in the context of their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs). According to the Regulation, these “scenarios are fully in line with the energy efficiency first principle and with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective and shall take into account the latest available Commission scenarios, as well as, when relevant, the national energy and climate plans (‘NECPs’)”.
Where possible, they are derived from official EU and Member-State data sources and are intended to provide a quantitative basis for infrastructure investment planning. The scenarios are intended to project the long-term energy demand and supply for the drafting of ENTSO-E’s and ENTSOG’s Ten-Year Network Development Plans within the context of the ongoing energy transition. They are designed in such a way that they specifically explore those uncertainties which are relevant for gas and electricity infrastructure development. As such, they primarily focus on aspects which determine the infrastructure utilisation. Furthermore, the scenarios draw extensively on the current European political and economic consensus and attempt to follow a logical trajectory to achieve future energy and climate targets.
Download
TYNDP 2024 Scenario Storylines – Version July 2023
- Introduction
- Scenario framework
- Scenario storylines for TYNDP 2024
- Storyline Development Methodology and Scenario Drivers
- Input Parameters
- Stakeholder engagement for the TYNDP 2024 Scenarios
- Next Steps
