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3 Scenario descriptions and storylines //

The TYNDP Scenarios aim to maintain robustness by ensuring consistency between successive TYNDPs while also incorporating new elements relevant to the ongoing development of the energy transition.

To achieve this goal, the TYNDP 2024 scenario storylines draw upon the storyline framework established during previous cycles, with extensive stakeholder feedback received on the 2022 draft storyline continuing to provide a solid foundation for the development of our current scenarios.

The TYNDP Scenarios Guideline emphasises the importance of stability between scenarios as a key element of robustness. It states that stability contributes to robustness by ensuring that the choice of storylines does not unnecessarily deviate from one TYNDP cycle to the next.

To address the evolving landscape of the energy sector, an adapted storyline update process was initiated at the outset of the TYNDP 2024 cycle, involving a public workshop to gather stakeholder feedback. Detailed information about the storylines and its development process is outlined in the Storyline Report published in July 20231. This chapter aims to summarise the key insights from the storyline report at a high level.

4.1 Scenario Framework

The scenarios must fulfill their intended purpose as described in Section 2 and adhere to a framework that is constrained to ensure the TYNDP is published every two years.

TYNDP 2024 scenario cycle include six scenarios, which are labelled either National Trends+ (‘NT+’) scenarios or deviation scenarios (Distributed Energy ‘DE’ and Global Ambition ‘GA’) based on development approach.

Figure 1 illustrates how ENTSO-E and ENTSOG cover different time horizons in their scenarios for TYNDP 2024.

Figure 1: TYNDP Scenario horizon and framework

National Trends+ (‘NT+’) scenario aligns with national energy and climate policies (NECPs, national long-term strategies, hydrogen strategies  …) derived from the European targets. The datasets for this scenario are collected from the TSOs, reflecting the latest policy- and market developments scrutinised at national level. These scenarios are developed for the 2030 and 2040 time-horizons, as datasets for the 2050 time-horizons are not available in all Member States. For TYNDP 2024, the dataset collection is finalised in 2023 Q12, prior to the publication of the draft updated NECPs, which were due to be published in summer 2023. Consequently, differences between updated NECPs and the datasets are anticipated.

Moreover, for the first time in this edition, the National Trends+ scenario is quantified for all energy carriers, expanding beyond electricity and gas. This facilitates an assessment of the European Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate, as mandated by the Regulation.

The gap between the EU targets and this scenario, is transparently presented during the consultation process and addressed according to the consulted ‘NT+ Energy mix gap filling methodology’3.

In addition to the NT+ scenario, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG developed two deviation scenarios (‘DE’ and ‘GA’) to address increased uncertainties after 2030. These scenarios diverge from the NT+ scenario starting from the NT+ 2030 baseline and extend into the 2040 and 2050 time horizons, following their respective storylines detailed in Section Scenario Storylines . Additionally, a snapshot for the 2035 time horizon is provided in the datasets and in the visualisation platform, representing an average between the 2030 and 2040 time horizons. Like NT+ scenario, these scenarios encompass all sectors and energy carriers, enabling the quantification of compliance with EU targets. For 2035 and 2040, the objective is to achieve a meaningful transition from 2030 EU targets, while reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 is mandatory.4

2 Except for offshore figures, which are updated in 2023 August to align with MS Non-binding Agreements.
3 View website
4 Wind offshore minimum capacities align with the MS’s non-binding agreements.

4.2 Scenario Storylines

The storylines aim to ensure sufficient differences on future energy ­demand and supply patterns to cover uncertainties related to infrastructure development.

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG use a top-down methodology to identify and define contrasting political, ­societal and technology underlying choices – so called “high-level drivers” which are green transition, driving force of energy transition, energy efficiency and technologies as illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2: High-level drivers for deviation scenarios

Figure 3 represents the distinct storylines based on the identified high-level drivers that form the basis for the development of Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios. These storylines guide the quantification of the scenarios and inform the development process of input parameters.

The input parameters are developed according to these storylines and have undergone public consultation, culminating in their finalisation alongside scenario building methodologies.

Figure 3: Storyline Matrix

This report presents the results of these scenarios at the EU27 level. For further details on the building blocks of the scenarios, explanation of the tool chain and modelling methodologies, please refer to the ‘2024 Scenario Building Guidelines’ available in the download section.