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NT+ Energy Mix Gap Filling Methodology //

This document provides a brief description of the proposed methodology to align the energy mix data collected from member TSOs with the European Commission final energy demand reduction targets for 2030/2040, as approved in April 2023.

Important: The following numbers are dummy variables to illustrate the adjustment process. They will be replaced by the final NT+ figures once they are ready.

Let’s assume the TSOs have submitted the energy mix data (from hereafter, the NT Energy Mix) covering a pre-defined set of economic sectors and energy carriers, respectively.

Upon analysing the data, Working Group Scenario Building (WGSB) realises that the total final energy demand is, e. g., 1,000 TWh above the energy demand target for a given target year. In consequence, the following methodology will be applied so that the final energy demand surplus is removed from the energy mix and therefore the EU27-wide numbers comply with the European targets.

The proposed methodology develops in four steps:

1. WGSB establishes a ranking of the economic sectors and energy carriers based on their greenhouse gas emission potential and their decarbonisation potential.

Once this ranking is determined, a subset of the sectors/carriers are selected and, among those, the surplus final energy demand would be subtracted. For instance, an example subset of such carriers is depicted below.

2. Then, for the subset of sectors/carriers selected for demand reduction, the associated final energy demand (GWh) is computed. Furthermore, the relative shares (%) of these items are also determined.

3. Once the relative shares of each of these sectors/carrier pairs are determined, the energy demand surplus will be reduced pro-rata, as in the example below.

4. At this stage, one knows, among the sector/carrier pairs considered, the EU27-wide reduction level required, yet not the country-specific one. Therefore, in order to reduce each category from the associated EU27-wide demand, country keys have to be determined. To this end, for each sector/carrier pair, the country distribution is obtained (see table below for the first item in the table above – ­District Heating/Solid fossil), the country keys are computed as relative shares and the reduction is applied pro-rata. The same approach is then repeated for all other sector/carrier pairs. It should be noted that the methodology does not allow for a complete reduction (to 0 GWh) of a certain sector/carrier pair.