Scenarios aim to establish a quantitative basis for the infrastructure assessment and network planning
Scenarios are used in ENTSO-E’s and ENTSOG’s respective TYNDPs for two main purposes: as a basis to perform the cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure projects; and as a basis for studies analysing future needs for system reinforcement / infrastructure gaps. On ENTSO-E’s side, they may also feed into future work on the cost-sharing of offshore infrastructure.
Because their purpose is to support infrastructure planning, the scenarios are designed to reflect the EU energy targets and national policy goals and strategies, such that they explore the uncertainties relevant to the gas and electricity infrastructure development. As such, they primarily focus on aspects which determine infrastructure utilisation.
The differences between the scenarios are therefore predominantly related to possible variations in demand and supply patterns. The scenarios within the TYNDP 2024 framework remain neutral in terms of technology, source, and energy-carrier neutral.
It is important to recognise the dynamic nature of the energy transition in Europe. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG acknowledge that some input parameters used in scenario creation may require adjustments as EU and Member States’ energy policies evolve to address climate change challenges. Hence, the TYNDP Scenario Building Process is iterative and continues to evolve in tandem with the energy system.
Legal framework
According to Regulation (EU) 2022/869 (‘TEN-E Regulation’)1, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG are mandated to jointly develop scenarios for the future European energy system in the context of their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs). These scenarios align fully with the energy efficiency first principle, the EU’s 2030 energy and climate targets, its 2050 climate neutrality objective, and consider the latest available Commission scenarios2, as well as, when relevant, the national energy and climate plans (NECPs).
In January 2023, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (‘ACER’) published the Framework Guidelines for the joint TYNDP scenarios to be developed by ENTSO for Electricity and ENTSO for Gas “TYNDP Scenarios Guidelines”3.
The TYNDP 2024 scenarios apply part of the guideline set in the TYNDP Scenarios Guidelines, which were published midway through the 2024 scenario building process. These include guidelines on the extended stakeholder engagement process, the transition to more robust and transparent tools, and improved methodologies to capture increased sectorial integration and flexibilities, all going in the direction of an even more transparent and non-discriminatory process for developing robust scenarios.
