Foreword //

We are delighted to jointly take this first step of the development of ENTSO-E and ENTSOG’s Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDP) 2024 process and develop together our respective scenarios. Our joint gas and electricity Scenarios report is the fourth of its kind, building upon the successive scenario cycle since the first joint edition in 2018.

Scenarios are a prerequisite for any study analysing the future of the European energy system. For the first time, the revised TEN-E Regulation (EU) 2022/869 requires a close alignment between the planning of the electricity, hydrogen and methane networks, which demonstrates the importance of the continued close cooperation between ENTSO-E and ENTSOG.

We believe that the delivery of the EU strategy on Energy System Integration in practice means the implementation of planning and development of all clean carriers in unison, if we want to meet European energy consumers’ needs whilst also achieving EU climate neutrality goals by 2050. Without this, a fully integrated energy system to deliver more efficient decarbonisation solutions is not possible. An integrated approach linking electricity, hydrogen and methane networks and countries seamlessly will support the efficient uptake of new technologies, while ensuring reliable energy supplies to consumers throughout the year, including peak demand situations.

Regarding the Scenarios themselves, they must be, according to the TEN-E Regulation, “fully in line with the energy efficiency first principle and with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective and shall take into account the latest available Commission scenarios, as well as, when relevant, the national energy and climate plans (‘NECPs’)”. The scenarios therefore evaluate the interactions between the electricity, hydrogen and methane systems, vital to delivering the best assessment of the infrastructure from an integrated system perspective. For this TYNDP 2024 scenario cycle, there are six scenarios, labelled either National Trends+ (NT+) scenarios or Deviation Scenarios (Distributed Energy (DE) and Global Ambition (GA).

Notably, the scenarios rely on innovation in new and existing technologies to achieve net-zero emissions. This is required to reduce the costs of energy from renewable energy sources, ensure the uptake of renewable and decarbonised gases, increase the efficiency of user appliances, facilitate demand side response and consumer participation, and develop technologies that will support negative emissions, while ensuring long-term sustainability for future generations.

The process to build our scenarios was guided by principles to ensure open stakeholder engagement from the beginning, with input on key parameters and consultation on published data, not just concepts. The 2024 scenarios building cycle included extensive stakeholder engagement with two innovations: the creation of the Scenarios Stakeholder Reference Group, as required by the TEN-E regulation and by the ACER Framework Guidelines, and the organisation of in-person stakeholder roundtables during our public consultation process to cater for more open discussions.

The development of this wide-ranging set of possible energy futures, as presented in the present Scenarios Report, will allow the electricity and gas TYNDPs to perform sound and comprehensive assessments of European energy infrastructure requirements from a whole energy system perspective. Our TYNDPs provide decision-makers with better information, as they seek to make informed choices that will benefit all European consumers.

Our scenario teams remain available for any further information at scenarios@entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu. We look forward to continuing working with all stakeholders as we follow the next important steps in the TYNDP process.

Piotr Kuś & Sonya Twohig