4.1 Three core principles/values for Stakeholder Engagement
Transparency
Developing three scenarios that project energy demand and supply until 2040 and 2050 is a highly complicated process. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG recognise that it is not sufficient to merely publicise the results of scenario modelling or to provide only a general overview of the methodologies used. Therefore, the TYNDP scenarios aim to provide full transparency for all stakeholders. This entails delivering a full explanation of all assumptions that have been made and making all raw data fully accessible via the dedicated website. Our goal is to create scenarios that could be replicated plausibly by third parties.
Inclusiveness
Due to the significance of the TYNDP scenarios for EU infrastructure planning, it is important to ensure that the scenarios reflect the general opinions of EU citizens both in their scope and in their goals. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG believe that any organisation or individual who wishes to share their views on the scenario building process should be offered sufficient opportunities to do so. This is made possible through the organisation of multiple fully public stakeholder events (such as consultation workshops and subject-specific webinars) and written stakeholder consultations.
Efficiency
The energy transition is dynamic and fast-paced. New technologies and new developments are constantly influencing the long-term outlook for the energy system of the future. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG recognise that thorough stakeholder engagement is necessary to ensure that the most up-to-date data and assumptions are utilised in the TYNDP scenarios. Interacting with stakeholders offers us the chance to learn from their experiences and to test our methodologies against real world conditions. An efficient scenario building process relies on timely stakeholder input.
4.2 Overview and learnings from the main stakeholder engagement activities in Scenarios 2024
Stakeholder feedback played a key role in shaping the 2024 scenarios from the outset. The publication of full datasets, the interactive data visualisation tool as well as a detailed Scenarios Methodology Report allow stakeholders to have a deep insight into the development process and the subsequent results.
Figure 4: TYNDP 2024 Stakeholder Engagement Timeline
Learnings on stakeholder engagement from the 2024 cycle:
- The public consultation on input data and assumptions and methodologies allowed stakeholders deeper insight into and impact on the development process and the subsequent results. It has proven beneficial to concentrate the stakeholders’ engagement effort early in the process, at the time of definition of inputs and methodologies, rather than on the scenarios output.
- While it was initially planned to run a second formal written public consultation on the draft scenarios, it has not been possible because of the challenging timeline. Instead, the draft scenarios have been shared with the Scenarios Reference Group (‘SRG’), which had just been set up, for a shorter revieww period. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG welcome the contribution of the SRG to the scenarios building process for the very first time. Capturing input from external experts via continuous engagement with the SRG rather than via an ad hoc formal written public consultation process has the potential to further increase stakeholders’ impact on scenarios. It also has potential to make the overall stakeholder engagement in scenarios more efficient, as each stakeholder contributes via the group on his/her specific field of expertise, at the time when that expertise is needed to feed into the process.
- However, it is important that the membership of the SRG remains balanced and representative of all relevant sectors. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will remain attentive to any future evolution of the SRG membership and will re-assess the involvement of the SRG in the scenarios building process should the SRG no longer be able to contribute recommendations from a balanced variety of interests.
- In addition, it is important to find the right balance between efficiency and transparency, especially for stakeholders who are not represented in the SRG membership. To that end, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will pay even more attention to ensuring that information, including on the process, timeline and engagement opportunities, is public and easily available. To that end in 2023 a central scenarios website was launched, meant to serve as a gate to access all information on the ongoing and past scenario cycles.
- Stakeholder feedback on the 2024 cycle called for additional efforts in explaining datasets and tools. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have invested more work this cycle in the development of interactive data visualisation of input data and of scenarios results. Efforts in data visualisation pay off as they help stakeholders understand the data and therefore provide more useful feedback.
4.3 Main stakeholder engagement steps – In more details
Early public consultation focused on the input data and methodologies
The public consultation addressed the following topics:
- Data consistency with respect to the storylines of the
DE & GA Scenarios; - Technology costs and energy prices;
- Modelling methodologies used;
- Technology-specific assumptions; and
- Potential improvements for future TYNDP Scenarios editions.
In total, 30 stakeholders from diverse sectors engaged in the public consultation. Almost 3 out of 4 responses came from the following categories (the categories considered are those used in the TEN-E Regulation): Associations involved in the electricity, gas and hydrogen markets (9), supply-side operators (8) and civil society representatives (5).
This consultation gave stakeholders the opportunity to directly influence the underlying assumptions for the scenarios. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG released in January 2024 a consultation summary report, providing an overview of the comments received per topic and sub-topic and explaining how the comments were considered.
In addition to the public consultation, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG organised a hybrid workshop and stakeholder roundtables on 13 July 2023. In this event, stakeholders were prompted to share their views and discuss key topics and datasets with the Scenario Building Team. Summaries of the discussions held in each roundtable are available online.
Following up on the roundtables and to answer stakeholders’ requests, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG released a list1 clarifying what is input to the model and what is output to the model.
1 Included in the Scenarios Methodology Report.
Consultation Summary Report
Including summaries of stakeholder roundtables:
Download Consultation Summary Report- Carbon budget
- Demand
- Methodology
- Supply
All answers received to the public consultation
SRG feedback on the preliminary 2024 TYNDP Scenarios results
Creation of the Scenarios Stakeholder Reference Group
As required by Article 12(3) of Regulation 2022/869 (TEN-E Regulation), ENTSO-E and ENTSOG initiated the creation of an independent Scenarios Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG). The SRG is meant to provide expert input to the development of scenarios by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG in accordance with the scenario development timeline.
ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have proposed draft Terms of Reference and have launched a call for interest from 5 May to 5 June 2023. An additional call for interest took place between 12 to 19 June, to supplement categories with less applicants. In total, 30 applications were received.
After assessing the relevance of applications with the requirements specified in ACER’s Framework guidelines and in the proposed Terms of Reference, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG established a draft list of 22 members which was shared with ACER and the European Commission for a two-week review period. No comments were received and the list of members of the SRG was published on 16 August 2023. After an initial kick-off call organised by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG, and the election of two co-convenors and two vice-convenors, the group started operating independently in November 2023.
The Terms of Reference approved by the SRG, list of members and minutes of meetings are available online.
Consultation of the Scenarios SRG on the draft scenarios
In December 2023 in the first weeks of existence of the SRG it was agreed between ENTSO-E, ENTSOG and the SRG that ENTSO-E and ENTSOG would share the draft scenarios with the SRG, who may share recommendations. From the point of view of ENTSO-E and ENTSOG, this exercise served a dual purpose: firstly to allow for collection of stakeholders feedback on the draft scenarios, as it had proved impossible to organise a second formal written consultation process, and secondly as a ‘learning by doing’ experience for the SRG, to help the group become fully operational and gain expertise in how TYNDP scenarios are built – including gaining understanding of the models and tools used. This was seen as a good preparation before the 2026 TYNDP cycle, for which the SRG is expected to be active from the very start of the process.
Draft scenarios under the form of datasets, a glossary and a visualisation tool were shared with the SRG on 12 January 2024. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG also organised a workshop for SRG members on 16 January to explain the tool architecture and the structure of the datasets.
The SRG shared informally its recommendations with ENTSO-E and ENTSOG on 14 February and the formal SRG feedback to 2024 TYNDP Scenario Preliminary Results, including a summary of the voting process, was shared with ENTSO-E and ENTSOG on 4 March 2024. SRG recommendations are meant for the 2024 cycle and for the 2026 cycle. Annex 3 lists SRG recommendations for the 2024 cycle and how they were taken into account in the final scenarios.
The SRG also provided feedback on the interactive data visualisation tools of the 2024 scenarios.
