SRG feedback to the TYNDP 2024 scenario cycle
| Category | Recommendations from SRG | Response from ENTSO-E and ENTSOG |
|---|---|---|
| Comparability with European Commission’s scenarios and output model | Provide key energy indicators for EU27 as in the EC’s impact assessment | Several chapters of the scenarios report and the methodology report have been extended to adress the request by SRG. |
| Comparability with European Commission’s scenarios and output model | Ensure metrics like final energy consumption, gross available energy, primary energy consumption, GHG emissions for EU27 are available in the scenario results. | Several chapters of the scenarios report and the methodology report have been extended to adress the request by SRG. |
| Accessibility | SRG recommends developing ways to provide key information publicly in an integrated manner. For each scenario to assist in evaluation of infrastructural choices, alongside energy infrastructure, EC 2040 energy and climate objectives, assumed emission pathways, and +1.5 °C compatibility can be presented in compact fashion. | Several chapters of the scenarios report and the methodology report have been extended to adress the request by SRG. |
| Modelling approach | Even if each country is only one node, the information on the annual and hourly numbers shall be split into distribution and transmission in gas, electricity and hydrogen. | The gas system is not explicitly modelled in the market models of TYNDP 2024. For electricity, the transmission/distribution split is to some extent revealed by the eMarket/RETE split. For hydrogen, however, such a split is not available at this stage and would require updates on the model side that would not fit into the timeline. |
| Demand – households – DE | The data shall be checked. Even if the demand figures are frozen, errors should be corrected. The ramp-up of heat pumps in the first 10 years in some countries may be unrealistic if 2019 and 2023 are too far off. The impact on the planning would be significant. | Will be checked with Quintel to fix the reference year value. Due to time challenges, the fix on the datasets is not possible for the TYNDP 2024 cycle but planned for the TYNDP 2026 scenario cycle. |
| Demand – Non-residential buildings | The data needs to be checked. Even if the demand figures are frozen errors should be corrected. | Will be checked with Quintel to fix the reference year value. Due to time challenges, the fix on the datasets is not possible for the TYNDP 2024 cycle but planned for the TYNDP 2026 scenario cycle. |
| Import Prices | Prices for ammonia imports shall be amended to better reflect the additional transport and conversion costs, which are clearly higher than those associated with pipeline transport. | The consulted prices for ammonia includes reconversion and transport cost of amonia. The prices are based on the EWI tool calculation. The EWI tool uses public available sources and is transperant in the way it calculate the prices. Other sources has been considered during the process, but the EWI source was found the best due to its tranparency in sources and calculation. |
| Sensitivity with H2 costs | As the prices setting mechanism for hydrogen is one of the most relevant parameters for the simulation, a sensitivity is needed. The SRG will provide a proposal for the price setting. | As it is discussed in the recent SRG meetings, the suggestion will be a basis rather for the TYNDP 2026 cycle. More information on the proposal and the timeline is required (to be align with ERAA 2024). |
| Commodity Prices | We propose that the TYNDP 2024 uses the commodity price projections provided by the European Commission. | For TYNDP 2024, the recommended source was IEA, 2022 as it was only publicly available source that could provide prices for all commodities & CO2. Whereas, for the EC prices, the associated CO2 prices are not available. Therefore, as explained in our consultation summary response, we used IEA prices for the NT+ 2030 & 2040 scenarios, which has been finalised. We recommend using the IEA to ensure consistency between scenarios and also commodities & CO2 prices. |
| Demand Response | If demand response is used in the simulation in a relevant amount, the parameters should be delivered to the SRG. A sensitivity should be calculated as in demand response the end user decided whether it delivers, and not the TSO. And the demand response plant has to be in an operations state to ramp up and down which has to be taken into account (because of multiple factors, such as: holidays, strikes, crisis like Covid, etc.). | Demand response is modelled as a regular electricity generator that can be activated at a given price and within a given volume range, assuming they are fully flexible. This information exists in the PEMMDB files per country. The activation of these units depends on price only (and therefore it is in the best interest of the user to activate it at high electricity prices) and it is difficult to integrate into the 2024 models any other consideration that would shift the response from users to the TSOs. |
| Batteries and EV's | We recommend the modelling driving battery expansion is double checked, as it seems unlikely that the two scenarios would have the same resulting battery capacity in all timesteps. | Will be taken into account for the TYNDP 2026 scenario cycle. |
| District Heating | Mention already any possible limitations of heat profiles, in case not shown. Check the heat planning and supply calculation, what the reason for the high amount of waste heat is, how the heat is produced, and whether technology and temperature of the heating grid fit together. | Will be taken into account for the TYNDP 2026 scenario cycle. |
