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Glossary //

Biomethane: Gaseous renewable energy source derived from agricultural biomass (dedicated crops, by-products and agricultural waste and animal waste), agro-industrial (waste from the food processing chain) and the Organic Fraction Municipal Solid Waste (OFMSW).

BEV: Battery electric vehicle

Carbon budget: This is the amount of carbon dioxide the world can emit while still having a likely chance of limiting average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, an internationally agreed-upon target.

CBA: Cost Benefit Analysis carried out to define to what extent a project is worthwhile from a social perspective.

CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage. Process of sequestrating CO2 and storing it in such a way that it won’t enter the atmosphere.

CHP: Combined heat and power

Direct electrification: Electricity demand for direct use in the final demand sectors (residential, tertiary, industry etc). Electricity which is converted to other energy carriers through power to gas or power to liquids is referred to as indirect electrification.

DSR: Demand Side Response. Consumers have an active role in the balancing of energy supply and demand by changing their energy consumption according to the energy price and availability. For example, by softening demand peaks in case of congestions, or by increasing energy use during surplus supply.

EC: European Commission

EED: EU Energy Efficiency Directive

ERAA: The ERAA is a pan-European monitoring assessment of power system resource adequacy of up to 10 years ahead.

ETM: Energy Transition Model

EV: Electric vehicle

FCEV: Fuel cell electric vehicle

GHG: Greenhouse gas

Hybrid Heat Pump: heating system that combines an electric heat pump with a gas condensing boiler to optimise energy efficiency.

IA: Impact Assessment released by the European Commission on 17 September 2020: Communication COM/2020/562: Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people

ICE: Internal combustion engine

IEA: World Energy Outlook

Indirect electricity demand: Indirect electrification means electricity demand for production of other energy carriers like hydrogen or synthetic liquids for replacing the use of fossil fuels. Besides industrial processes and hydrogen electrolysis, this could be e.g. heat pumps and electric boilers for district heat production.

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LNG: Liquefied natural gas

LTS: Long Term Strategy released by the European Commission on 28 November 2018: A Clean Planet for all. A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy.

LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. Sink of CO2 made possible by the fact that atmospheric CO2 can accumulate as carbon in vegetation and soils in terrestrial ecosystems.

NECPs: National Energy and Climate Plans are the new framework within which EU Member States have to plan, in an integrated manner, their climate and energy objectives, targets, policies and measures to the European Commission. Countries will have to develop NECPs on a ten-year rolling basis, with an update halfway through the implementation period. The NECPs covering the first period from 2021 to 2030 will have to ensure that the Union’s 2030 targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy, energy efficiency and electricity interconnection are met.

NGO: Non-governmental Organisation

OR: Other RES. It includes bio-fuels, marine, geothermal, waste, and any other small renewable technologies. The CO2 content of these technologies are zero; they are carbon neutral.

ONR: Other non-RES. It includes mainly CHP that is used in district heating & industry. Fuel use can be gas, coal, lignite, and oil. The CO2 content of ONR technologies depending on the technology and have been considered into the CO2 budget.

P2G: Power to gas. Technology that uses electricity to produce hydrogen (Power to Hydrogen – P2H2) by splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen (electrolysis). The hydrogen produced can then either be used directly or indirectly to produce other fuels, where it is combined with CO2 to obtain synthetic methane (Power to Methane – P2CH4) or can be converted to other energy carriers like for example synthetic ammonia (P2NH3).

P2L: Power to liquids. Combination of hydrogen from electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch process to obtain synthetic liquid fuels.

PCI: Project of Common Interest

Power-to-Hydrogen/P2Hydrogen: Hydrogen obtained from P2H2.

Power-to-Methane/P2Methane: Renewable methane, could be biomethane or synthetic methane produced by renewable energy sources only.

RES: Renewable energy source

SRG: Stakeholder Reference Group. The SRG is meant to provide expert input to the development of scenarios by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG in accordance with the scenario development timeline.

SMR / ATR: Steam methane reforming (SMR) and Autothermal reforming (ATR) represent each an industrial process to produce hydrogen with natural gas. Can be outfitted with carbon capture technologies

Synthetic fuel: Fuel (gas or liquid) that is produced from renewable or low carbon electrical energy.

TEN-E: Trans-European Networks for Energy, EU policy focused on linking the energy infrastructure of EU countries.

TSO: Transmission System Operator

TYNDP: Ten Year Network Development Plan

Publishing Info – Acknowledgements & Co-authors //

Joint-Publishers

ENTSOG

European Network of
Transmission System Operators for Gas
Avenue de Cortenbergh 100
1000 Brussels, Belgium
www.entsog.eu

ENTSO-E

European Network of
Transmission System Operators for Electricity
Rue de Spa, 8
1000 Brussels, Belgium
www.entsoe.eu

Co-authors

This study was prepared by:

The joint Working Group Scenario Building (WGSB) teamcreated jointly by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG.

The project steering group convenors are:

Alan Croes (TenneT) and Thilo von der Grün (ENTSOG)

The project is led by:

Alexander Kättlitz (ENTSOG) and Nalan Buyuk (ENTSO-E).

The modelling and analytical teams for the WGSB were led by:

Laura Lopez (ENTSO-E), Dante Powel (ENTSOG), David Radu (ENTSO-E),
Joan Frezouls (ENTSOG), Mads Boesen (ENTSOG), Andriy Vovk (ENTSO-E)

Key contributions across the WGSB team are:

Tim Gassmann, Tennet TSO BV
(leading the transition and management
of Energy Transition Model)

Pieter Boersma, Gasunie
Filippo Favero, SNAM
Zbigniew Uszyński, PSE
(demand)

Sebastian Spieker, 50Hertz
Thomas Rzepczyk, Amprion
Lukas Ingenhorst, Amprion
(modelling activities and methodologies)

Radek Vrábel, ČEPS
(modelling activities)

Alberts C. Kees, Gasunie
Daniel Huertas Hernando, Elia
Geert Smits, Fluxys
Elis Nycander, FinGrid
Christian Bjørn, Energinet
Rasmus Halfdan Sandahl Jensen, Energinet
(modelling methodologies)

Ramiro Fernández-Alonso, REE
(trajectories and stakeholder engagement)

Alina Fetzer, Julian Haumaier, TenneT TSO BV
(cost of technologies)

Mattia Carboni, SNAM
(supply)

Léa Dehaudt, ENTSO-E
Gideon Saunders, ONTRAS
Roberto Francia, ENTSOG
(leading stakeholder activities)

Xosé María Vega Arias, ENTSO-E
(Visualisation Tool)

Derek Egan, Eirgrid
Eva Drews, APG
Giulio La Pera, ENTSO-E
(ESSM team and interfaces)

Stefano Costa, ENTSO-E
Anastasia Vitou, ENTSO-E
(electricity demand profiles)

Working Group Scenario Building

Steering Group Members

SG Convenor – ENTSO-E
Alan Croes, TenneT

Members
Massimo Moser, TransnetBW
Valentin Wiedner, APG
Fabrizio Vedovelli, Terna

SG Convenor – ENTSOG
Kacper Żeromski, ENTSOG
Simona Marcu, ENTSOG
Thilo von der Grün, ENTSOG
Pieter Boersma, Gasunie

Steering Group Members

Convenors ENTSO-E
Nalan Buyuk, ENTSO-E
David Radu, ENTSO-E

Members ENTSO-E
Sebastian Spieker, 50Hertz
Thomas Rzepczyk, Amprion
Lukas Ingenhorst, Amprion
Katharina Gruber, APG
Eva Drews, APG
Jitka Kuncová, ČEPS
Radka Mazurková, ČEPS
Christian Bjørn, Energinet
Rasmus Halfdan Sandahl Jensen, Energinet
Peter Erik Jørgensen, Energinet
Derek Egan, Eirgrid
Daniel Huertas Hernando, Elia
Maud Perilleux, Elia
Zbigniew Uszyński, PSE
Ramiro Fernández-Alonso, REE
Christophe Crocombette, RTE
Elis Nycander, Svenska Kraftnät
Tim Gassmann, TenneT TSO BV
Alina Fetzer, TenneT TSO BV
Julian Haumaier, TenneT TSO BV
Francesco Tomasi, Terna
Manicardi Aurora, Terna
Ali Tash, TransnetBW GmbH

ENTSO-E Secretariat
Edwin Haesen, ENTSO-E
Rodrigo Barbosa, ENTSO-E
Léa Dehaudt, ENTSO-E
Stefano Costa, ENTSO-E
Mathias Brauner, ENTSO-E
Anastasia Vitou, ENTSO-E
Xosé María Vega Arias, ENTSO-E

Convenor ENTSOG
Dante Powell, ENTSOG

Members ENTSOG
Geert Smits, Fluxys
Michal Sekita, GAZ-SYSTEM
Eglantine Kunle, GRTgaz
Aurelie le Maitre, GRTgaz
Tom Obenaus, ONTRAS
Filippo Favero, SNAM
Umberto Berzero, SNAM
Filippo Favero, SNAM
Pieter Boersma, Gasunie
Brian Flannery, Gasnetworks Ireland
Konstantinos Bergeles, DESFA
Maria Grigorakou, DESFA
Mattia Carboni, SNAM
Maria Jost, GASCADE
Johannes Mohr, Open Grid Europe – OGE
Emilie Mauger, Teréga
Jordan Perrin, Teréga
Gideon Saunders, ONTRAS

ENTSOG Secretariat
Mads Boesen, ENTSOG
Joan Frezouls, ENTSOG
Roberto Francia, ENTSOG

Design

Layout

DreiDreizehn GmbH, Berlin | www.313.de

Cover artwork

ZN Consulting, Brussels | www.znconsulting.com

Pictures

Executive Summary: courtesy of Gas Connect Austria/Monika Aigner
Purpose of the Scenarios: ©iStockphoto.com/vlastas
Scenario descriptions and sotrylines: courtesy of TAP
Steakeholder Engagement: courtesy of 50 Hertz Transmission
Improvements in the TYNDP 2024 Scenarios: ©iStockphoto.com/allou

Scenario Results: courtesy of GAZ-SYSTEM
Target Compliance: courtesy of Fluxys
Next Steps: courtesy of Fingrid
Annex 1: courtesy of Swissgas

Publishing date

May 2024