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5 Improvements Improvements in the TYNDP 2024 scenarios //

Both ENTSOG and ENTSO-E consistently strive to enhance their data, tools, and methodologies with each TYNDP scenario release. The TYNDP 2024 scenarios have benefitted from the lessons learned from previous editions, with improvements being prioritised based on stakeholder feedback received during previous TYNDP scenario consultations.

5.1 Proactive and early stakeholder engagement

As detailed in Chapter 4, there were several changes and improvements to stakeholder engagement in the 2024 scenarios cycle. In particular, since end 2023 the SRG complements existing engagement methods, and Stakeholder Roundtables are a new tool providing a forum for deeper discussions on crucial assumptions, supplementing written feedback and Consultation Workshop input.

These initiatives aim to achieve more comprehensive stakeholder involvement, promoting transparency in scenario development.

5.2 Increased transparency

For the first time in TYNDP 2024, the Energy Transition Model (ETM)12 is utilised for demand quantification. Developed by Quintel Intelligence, the ETM is a comprehensive and openly accessible online model designed to construct and explore energy system scenarios, covering all relevant sectors and energy carriers.

Interested third parties can leverage the model for scenario creation and replicate scenarios by accessing the input parameters through published scenario links. Furthermore, extended datasets are published to provide access to all datasets, including country-level hourly modelling results.

5.3 Robust methodologies

Given the evolving energy sector and increased interlinkages among sectors, methodologies have been enhanced to ensure robustness of results. Explicit modelling of sectors has been implemented to better capture these increased interlinkages, albeit at the expense of more complex and time-consuming methodologies.

Summaries of these improvements are provided below, with detailed methodologies available in the TYNDP 2024 Scenario Building Guidelines report.

5.3.1 Prosumer and EV Modelling

The emergence of e-mobility, residential batteries, and solar panels presents fresh opportunities for individuals to engage with the broader electricity infrastructure. In this edition, akin to TYNDP 2022, passenger cars and prosumers have been expressly integrated as distinct elements within the electricity framework.

This enables the tracking of their progression based on hybrid signals: the wholesale electricity market price on one side and particular factors like decreased connection expenses or mobility demands on the other.

5.3.2 Offshore Modelling Methodology

The offshore modelling methodology is a major innovation in this scenario cycle. Instead of modelling offshore wind as radial capacity connected to the respective home market, the offshore territory has been divided into offshore zones where the wind power infrastructure for each zone as well as the interconnectors between zones are modelled explicitly. This allows the model to optimise the expansion of an offshore grid for transporting wind energy between different offshore hubs, which may be more efficient than having radial connections from wind farms to shore. The model can also invest in an offshore hydrogen grid in parallel with the electricity grid, in a similar manner as for the onshore grid. This combined offshore electricity and hydrogen grid expansion allows the model to answer questions like:

  • Should wind power be oversized compared to transmission capacity
  • Should wind farms be radially connected to the home market or integrated into an offshore grid?
  • Should the energy be transported as electricity or hydrogen, or a combination of the two?
  • Additionally, the offshore zones have been split into smaller sections with differentiated costs, by using a combination of geodata and bathymetry data. The offshore wind potential and investment costs for each section are modelled explicitly, thus further increasing the granularity of investment options available in the expansion model.

5.3.3 Hydrogen Modelling

The P2G methodology utilised in the TYNDP 2024 scenarios represents a notable evolution from the TYNDP 2022 Scenarios Report. In the earlier report, P2G was modelled with various configurations envisioning diverse operational setups. This methodology has since undergone further refinement, now encompassing additional sources of hydrogen demand, such as those for synthetic fuel production and gas turbine usage. Moreover, supplementary supply sources, including ammonia, have been incorporated, alongside an exploration into different colors of hydrogen production through steam methane reformers. Consequently, the initial five hydrogen configurations have been streamlined to two, one centered around a hydrogen market and another addressing hydrogen demands operating independently from said market.

This methodology aims to accurately depict the interplay between electricity and hydrogen markets while also assessing the potential advantages of a European hydrogen infrastructure within the broader context of optimising the European energy system with a holistic approach.

An additional innovation compared to the previous edition is the explicit model of the hydrogen system, which is explained in more detail with its limitations in the Scenarios Methodology Report.

5.3.4 Synthetic Fuel Modelling

In this scenario development cycle, synthetic fuels have been included as a notable innovation. These are fuels such as e-kerosene, e-diesel and synthetic methane which are produced by converting hydrogen and biogenic CO₂ through processes like the Fischer-Tropsch and methanation.

This approach leverages CO₂ and promotes a shift away from fossil fuels. It also impacts the hydrogen demand, ensuring that hydrogen demand for synthetic fuels is accounted in the supply side of the model. This development supports our storyline of decarbonising energy.

5.3.5 Hybrid Heat Pump Modelling

The TYNDP 2024 DE and GA scenarios incorporate Hybrid Heat Pumps as a heating solution, combining electric heat pumps with either hydrogen or methane boilers.

This addition to the model offers improved insight into the interaction among these three carriers in meeting the demands of another sector, heat.