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2 Scenario Framework //

Scenarios will cover different time horizons

The scenario building process for the TYNDP 2024 builds on the work of previous editions. The TYNDP process has shown that scenarios have to combine different expectations along their time horizon: supporting infrastructure project assessment, analyzing investment needs or illustrating the shape of prospective energy systems. Figure 1 illustrates how ENTSO-E and ENTSOG plan to cover the different time horizons in their scenarios for TYNDP 2024.

Figure 1: TYNDP Scenario horizon and framework

TYNDP 2024 scenario cycle will include six scenarios and depending on how there are developed, these scenarios are labelled either National Trends+ (‘NT+’) scenarios or Deviation Scenarios (Distributed Energy ‘DE’ and Global Ambition ‘GA’).

  • National Trends will be the scenario in line with national energy and climate policies (NECPs, national long-term strategies, hydrogen strategies …) derived from the European targets. The electricity and gas datasets for this scenario will be based on figures collected from the TSOs translating the latest policy- and market-driven developments as discussed at national level. These scenarios will be created for the 2030 and 2040 time-horizons, because datasets for the 2050 time-horizons are not available in all Member States (MS). For this cycle, the collected datasets represent TSOs best estimate as they are in accordance with the anticipated NECPs whose draft versions are to be published in summer 2023. Additionally, for the first time in this edition, the National Trends scenario will be quantified for all energy carriers (as opposed to just electricity and gas in the previous installments). This will enable an assessment of the European Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate as required by the Regulation. If there is a gap between the EU targets and this scenario, this gap will be transparently presented and closed according to the ‘NT+ Energy mix gap filling methodology’ (Annex-2). Consequently, this scenario is now called National Trends+ (NT+). As this scenario is based on MS’s NECPs, they will not be part of public consultation. However, the Annex-2 ’NT+ Energy mix gap closing methodology’ is published as part of public consultation in July 2023.
  • In addition to the NT+ scenario, which is aligned with national policies, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will develop two deviation scenarios (DE and GA). These scenarios are deviations from the NT+ 2030 scenario according to their respective storylines. Therefore, they require a Storyline Update Process. These scenarios will be created for the 2040 and 2050 time horizons (2030 NT+ is the starting point). In addition, the 2035-time horizon will be reported as a snapshot. These will also be built as full energy scenarios (all sectors, all energy carriers) in order to quantify compliance with EU targets. For 2035 and 2040, a meaningful transition from 2030 EU targets is sought, while for 2050 reaching carbon neutrality is mandatory.

Scope of this storyline report

NT+ scenarios have a strong country-specific narrative that provides insight into the evolving policies and market developments for each area. This is also in line with the legal requirements that the dataset shall reflect European Union and Member State national law in force at the date of analysis (Regulation (EU) 347/2013, Annex V, point 2) and furthermore, conforms with provisions stated in (EC) No 714/2009 and (EC) NO 715/2009, Article 8 point 10. The assumptions used in the NT+ scenario are already being discussed on a national level. That is why ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will not publish NT+ for public consultation, rather for information.

The two deviation scenarios on the other hand, require specific storylines defined on a European level. The next chapters lay out the deviation storylines ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will use in further scenario development for TYNDP 2024 captured in this report.