1 Introduction to TYNDP 2024 Scenarios //

The development of the scenarios marks the first step in the TYNDP 2024 process. Defining the scenarios, however, requires the development of the (qualitative) storylines to be explored. The TYNDP 2024 scenarios are based on the TYNDP 2022 scenario storylines and thus requires revisiting of these storylines. The TYNDP 2024 scenario building process launched together with a storyline review workshop organised on the 20th of July 2022 where ENTSOG and ENTSO-E presented their proposal for the updates for the TYNDP 2024 storylines to collect stakeholder feedback. This storyline report presents the scenario framework for TYNDP 2024, consisting of one national policy scenario and two deviation scenarios, and explains the storyline development of these deviation scenarios.

The storylines captured in this report are the foundation of the scenario building quantification phase for the deviation scenarios which starts by gathering the input parameters and developing methodologies. These input parameters and methodologies which are part of the public consultation launched between 4th of July 2023 and 8th of August 2023, and should be analysed together with their respective scenarios. After collecting stakeholder feedback, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will finalise the input parameters and methodologies which will feed into the modelling. This modelling will result in full energy scenarios, including accompanying datasets which will be consulted later in 2023.

Joint scenarios are a key step towards an interlinked approach to energy system analysis. Joint scenarios allow ENTSO-E and ENTSOG to undertake infrastructure analysis from a common and consistent set of assumptions and data. The TYNDP 2018 was the first time ENTSOG and ENTSO-E cooperated on scenario development. For the TYNDP 2020 and 2022 cycles, the scenario building process was further expanded and improved. Since there are strong synergies and co-dependencies between gas and electricity infrastructures, it is increasingly important to understand the impact of European policies that aim to achieve a carbon-neutral European energy system by 2050.

Joint scenarios allow ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to assess future infrastructure needs and projects against the same future outlooks. The TYNDP 2024 scenarios go beyond the EU-27 to the ENTSO-E & ENTSOG perimeters, which includes members, observers and associated partners.

Gas and electricity Transmission System Operators (‘TSOs’) incorporate the technical knowledge and experience to provide European-focused scenarios that demonstrate how the energy transition could impact the European electricity and gas systems; along with an assessment of the challenges for the long-term horizon.

The outcome of the joint scenario development process provides decision makers with important information, as they seek to make informed choices that will benefit all European consumers. Combining the efforts from gas and electricity TSOs offers ENTSOG and ENTSO-E an opportunity to leverage cross-sectorial and country specific knowledge and expertise that would otherwise be missing. Joint working provides access to a broader range of stakeholders who are actively participating in the energy sector. The scenario building process for TYNDP 2024 builds on the work from previous editions and aims to continually improve the overall quality, level of detail and transparency. The purpose is to grant stakeholders access and enable the use of scenario data to understand what is required to deliver a cleaner and better energy system for everyone of Europe.

As outlined in the Regulation, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E are required to use scenarios as the basis for the official TYNDP (created every two years by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG) and also for the calculation of the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) used as an input to assess EU electricity and gas infrastructure Projects of Common Interest (PCI). ENTSOG and ENTSO-E design their scenarios specifically for this purpose. The scenarios are intended to project the long-term energy supply and demand considering the ongoing energy transition. Furthermore, the scenarios draw extensively on the current political and economic consensus and attempt to follow a logical trajectory to achieve future energy and climate targets.

The scenarios and their storylines are designed to reflect the EU and national policy goals and strategies, including the Energy Efficiency First principle, such that they specifically explore the uncertainties that are relevant to the development of gas and electricity infrastructure. As such, they primarily focus on aspects which determine infrastructure utilisation. The differences between the scenario storylines are therefore predominantly related to possible variations in demand and supply patterns. To this end, all the scenarios developed within the TYNDP 2024 framework remain technology, source and energy-carrier neutral.

The TYNDP 2024 scenario storylines rely extensively on the storyline framework developed during the TYNDP 2022 scenario cycle. On the one hand, this approach was followed since the proposed deviations from the national policy scenarios remain largely unchanged. In this context, the extensive feedback received on the 2022 draft storyline report provided a solid basis for our current scenarios.

On the other hand, the decision to update the previous cycle storylines rather than to develop completely different ones was also supported by Framework Guidelines for the joint TYNDP scenarios to be developed by ENTSO for Electricity and ENTSO for Gas (‘TYNDP Scenarios Guideline’).